The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that global temperatures could rise by 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century if current climate policies remain unchanged, increasing the risk of extreme weather and severe environmental and economic consequences.

According to UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap Report, released on Wednesday, current global efforts remain insufficient to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, which seeks to limit warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5°C.

The report estimates that fully implementing countries’ current climate commitments could limit warming to approximately 2.6°C by 2100. If additional net-zero pledges are also fulfilled, the projected increase could fall to around 2.1°C. Both scenarios, however, remain above the agreement’s targets.

UNEP stressed that substantially deeper greenhouse gas emissions cuts are needed. Global emissions would need to decline by 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, to bring warming closer to the agreed targets.

The report also outlines a more optimistic scenario in which warming reaches approximately 1.7°C to 1.8°C by mid-century before potentially falling to 1.5°C or lower by 2100. Achieving this outcome would require sustained emissions reductions and expanded technologies capable of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold would not mean abandoning climate action, stressing the need to limit any temperature overshoot and bring global temperatures back toward the agreed target.

UNEP warned that continued warming would increase the risks of heatwaves, floods, and wildfires while placing additional pressure on food security, water resources, and ecosystems, particularly in vulnerable regions.

Despite these challenges, the report notes that renewable energy expansion and climate policies have helped reduce projected emissions in several countries and sectors. UNEP maintains that stronger commitments and faster implementation could still significantly limit future warming.